Artificial Expectations

September 19, 2009 at 10:42 am 1 comment

They’re at it again.

Via Instapundit, the Foresight Institute discusses a World Future Society forecast predicting human level AI by 2025.

“I’m fairly certain that we’ll have AI that’s capable of a wide range of human tasks by 2025 — housemaids, butlers, chauffeurs, police and security guards, lots of desk and sales jobs, etc.”

I’ll take predictions like that seriously when I can make a voice-activated call on my cellphone without having to repeat myself.

Come on!  For twenty years, voice recognition software has been “new and approved” with great promise to eliminate manual data entry.  I can make a call to anywhere in the world with a phone smaller than a deck of cards, but I routinely have to repeat myself to get it to understand an extremely limited vocabulary of a few dozen words.  Oh, my current Blackberry is better at it than the LG that I had ten years ago, but the tech hasn’t managed to double yet.  And I’m pretty sure that any of the jobs listed above will require voice recognition several orders of magnitude better than what’s available today.

But then, I have a lot more respect for housemaids, butlers, chauffeurs, police and security guards than the Foresight Institute.

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Entry filed under: Technology. Tags: .

Epitomy of Genetic Engineering Artificial Expectations II

1 Comment

  • 1. Artificial Expectations III « Mycroft HOLMES 4  |  September 20, 2009 at 10:06 am

    […] Becomes a Reality.  This is the one that caught my attention in the first place and I discussed it here.  To be honest, this forecast is more likely when discussing the actual applications listed […]


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